An Empirical Analysis of Climate-Conflict Cycles

The Syrian Civil War & The 2023 Earthquakes

Abstract

In responding to calls for more empirical research on the climate-conflict nexus, this article contributes empirical findings from Syria and the 2023 Türkiye-Syria Earthquakes to assess one step of the vicious cycle theory. Specifically, it traces the cycle from natural hazard vulnerability, through the hazard impact, to the resulting change in armed conflict intensity. Through a comparison of two similar Syrian governorates, with differing levels of post-earthquake conflict intensity, I find modest support for a relationship between natural hazard vulnerability and an increase in conflict intensity. I further find support for a causal mechanism that sees high intensity impacts of the earthquake lead civilians to seek support from rebel groups, ultimately leading to increased recruitment and conflict. The similarities in the cases and the nature of earthquakes as exogenous, rapid onset events, allow for a strong research design that controls for reverse causality in the study. The article concludes by proposing a framework of analysis of rotational variables and scope conditions as a first step to creating a consistent and e!ective tool to empirically evaluate the climate-conflict cycle.